Koehler BBS Comm mccauley

From: Parish Kevin (kip195@psy.soton.ac.uk)
Date: Thu May 21 1998 - 12:58:41 BST


> the only difference between base rate and individuating information is
> which comes first.

Base rate is a mathematical probability (for what they're worth) and is
based on an objective assessment of a population or representative
sample. The individuating information is more subjective in nature and
may be related to personal experiences and beliefs. Koehler's prior
probability is of the same nature but what the base rate is remains the
same it is statistical truth.

> Subjects' estimates would define a base rate, or, in Koehler's terms, a
> (subjective) prior probability

Here is a fine contradiction. If Kohler has defined a base rate as the
actual population probability of it being one thing or another then to
say this (above piece) is merely a case of not agreeing with Koehler's
definition. If Koehler has defined base rate wrongly then that does not
make findings or theorised material any less valid in the context of
his (possibly inaccurate) definition

> but a category of individuals who share a certain personality type or a
> certain behavior.

A personality type or behaviour is not a certain predictor of the
next variables

> better founded distinctions

A distinct need for this in all of psychology as too much time is
wasted on petty bickering over definition



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