|Prior evidence that downloads predict citations||6 September 2004|
This correlation has two immediate implications:
(1) Download counts can be used as early performance indicators for papers and authors, even before their impact is reflected in citation counts: http://citebase.eprints.org/ ( Hitchcock et al. 2003).
(2) Enhancing usage impact is yet another reason for authors to provide open access to their articles by self-archiving them.
Brody, T. & Harnad, S. (2004, in prep.) Using Web Statistics as a predictor of Citation Impact. http://www.ecs.soton.ac.uk/~harnad/Temp/timcorr.doc
Harnad, S. & Brody, T. (2004) Comparing the Impact of Open Access (OA) vs. Non-OA Articles in the Same Journals, D-Lib Magazine 10 (6) June http://www.dlib.org/dlib/june04/harnad/06harnad.html
Hitchcock, Steve; Woukeu, Arouna; Brody, Tim; Carr, Les; Hall, Wendy and Harnad, Stevan. (2003) Evaluating Citebase, an open access Web-based citation-ranked search and impact discovery service http://opcit.eprints.org/evaluation/Citebase-evaluation/evaluation-report.html
Perneger, T.V. (2004) Relation between online "hit counts" and subsequent citations: prospective study of research papers in the BMJ. BMJ 2004;329:546-547 (4 September), doi:10.1136/bmj.329.7465.546 http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/329/7465/546