The Cognitive Neuroscience Laboratory
Research
Decision
Making
Decision making is an inseparable component of all cognitive activities. One of
the aims of our research is to examine the processes underlying decision making
in different cognitive and applied domains, and to determine their
commonalities and differences. In studying decision making, it is critical to
examine both the processes by which decision alternatives are identified,
evaluated, and managed, and the actual selecting mechanism that leads to the
decision choice.
The decision making process is dependant on a variety of factors, which may alter the decision choice. Our research focuses on four factors that affect the decision making process (other factors, such as complexity, risk taking, etc., are embedded within these four factors):
- Time Pressure.
- Top-Down and External Context.
- Expertise.
- Age.
1. Time Pressure: As time pressure increases, our ability to examine and compare choice alternatives is challenged, and the decision making process is modified. These changes include ignoring some choice alternatives altogether, making information more efficient, information selectivity, change of threshold for responding, and more. We examine these effects, focusing on how they interact with risk taking and expertise domains (such as medical, financial, policing, and aviation decision making).
2. Top-Down and External Context: Decisions are not made in isolation. They do not only depend on ‘objective’ data-driven bottom-up information. A variety of external top-down influences play a major role in how information is perceived, processed, evaluated, and represented, which all have critical roles in the decision making process and its outcome. For example, subliminal priming of negative ageing stereotypes decreases the will to live, and negative emotional states increases the likelihood of finding a match in fingerprint identification. These types of effects include many other factors, such as interactions with other people and with technology, which we are currently investigating.
3. Expertise: The above factors that affect the decision making process and the decisions made are further mediated by experience and expertise. Decisions within highly specialised domains, such as medical and financial decision making, and decisions within the aviation and forensic science environments, are of great interest to us and a focus of our current research.
4. Age: As cognitive resources decrease with ageing, a mismatch between task demands and resources available poses a challenge to the cognitive system. As with time pressure, the system dynamically attempts to compensate and overcome this challenge. Although cognitive resources decrease with age, experience and ‘wisdom’ increases. Our research on ageing examines if (& how) the decision making processes is affected by age. Ageing interacts with many of the factors above, such as top-down influences.
See BBC’s Newsnight interview with Dr. Dror on expert decision
making, contextual influence, and error.
See link to Forensic
& Biometric Identification
See link to Training
See link to Cognition &
Technology
Related publications:
Dror, I.E. and
Rosenthal, R. (2008). Meta-analytically quantifying the reliability
and biasability of forensic experts. Journal of Forensic Sciences, 53(4),
900-903.
Stibel, J. M., Dror, I. E., & Ben-Zeev, T.
(in press). Dissociating
Choice and Judgment in Decision Making: The Collapsing Choice Theory.
Theory and Decision.
Sung, M., Johnson, J.E.V. & Dror, I. E. (in press). Complexity
as a guide to understanding decision bias: A contribution to the favorite-longshot bias debate. Journal of Behavioral
Decision Making.
Dror, I.E. &
Fraser-Mackenzie, P. (2008). Cognitive
biases in human perception, judgment, and decision making: Bridging theory and
the real world. In K. Rossmo (Ed.) Criminal
Investigative Failures (pp 53-67). Taylor &
Francis Publishing.
Dror, I.E. (2008). Confirmation
bias. Annual Conference of NIJ (National Institute of Justice).
Dror, I.E. &
Charlton, D. (2006). Why
experts make errors. Journal of Forensic Identification, 56
(4), 600-616. [abstract]
Dror,
Dror, I.E., Peron, A., Hind, S., & Charlton, D. (2005). When emotions get the better of us: The
effect of contextual top-down processing on matching fingerprints. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 19(6), 799-809. [abstract]
Dror, I.E.
(2008). Merging technology and cogniton: Imroving human performance and
decision making. Windows of Science, US
Air Force Reseach Laboratory. Texas.
Dror,
Dror, I.E. (2006). The
psychology of police performance and decision making. Police Professional, 58, 37-39..
Dror, I.E., Charlton,
D., & Peron A. (2006). Contextual information renders experts vulnerable to making
erroneous identifications. Forensic Science International, 156 (1), 74-78.
[abstract]
Busey, T. & Dror, I.E. (in press). Special Abilities and Vulnerabilities in Forensic Expertise. In A. McRoberts (Ed.) Friction Ridge Sourcebook.
Peron, A. E., Dror,
Dror, I.E. (2006). Cognitive science serving
security: Assuring useable and efficient biometric and technological solutions.
Aviation Security International, 12 (3),
21-28. [abstract]
Dror, I.E. (2005).
Perception is far from perfection: The role of the brain and mind in constructing
realities. Brain and
Behavioural Sciences 28 (6), 763. [abstract].
Peron, A.E.,
Dror,
Dror,
Dror,
Rafaely, V., Dror,
Ashman,
O., Dror,
Baden, D., Dror, I. E.,
and Warwick-Evans,
Rafaely, V., Dror,
Dror, I. E., Rafaely, V., & Busemeyer, J.
(submitted). The dynamics of decision making as a function of recent
outcomes and possible consequences.
Peron, A.E. & Dror, I.E. (2004). The number of
alternative choices affects decision making in a counter intuitive probability
task. XXI
BPS Annual Cognitive Conference.
Levy, B., Ashman, O.
& Dror,